I don’t think anyone will like the answer
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Say critically ill lives saved = 10x lives lost. Assume 1 million dead (0.013%), so 10m lives (0.13%) saved due to shutdown. Divide GDP lost by world pop to get per-capita cost. For $10T GDP lost, that’s $1,333.33 per capita. Or $0.0001 per life. Each life saved worth $1 million
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Somebody make a table... GDP loss (global deficit jump is a good proxy perhaps?) on rows, lives saved on columns, per capita cost and value of each life in cells. My example: $10T lost, 10m lives saved, each cost 1m to save, at $0.0001 per capita, we each pay $1333 total.
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+ medical overflow non-covid victims
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this equation will have increasingly more terms the more you think about it
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economic distress death rate can be brought to near zero with emergency UBI (which can be extended after the emergency to keep the rate near zero, instead of the pre-crisis background rate)
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Various govt agencies already do this, it's called value of a statistical life https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-value-of-life/ … It's roughly around 10 million USD
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This is different. VSL roughly measures willingness to spend in order to save lives.
@vgr is measuring the actual econ impact of those lives, which is very likely greater than VSL
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Minus road accident victims minus occupational accident victims
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How do you put a price on the widespread cultural learnings of this experience? We don't/can't know what wisdom humanity acquires because of this ... or what risk of ruin we might avoid at some future time because of this. E.g. Some next, worse pandemic: Maybe we'll be ready.
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