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vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

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Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

Conversational account. For work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian. IKEA builder.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

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    Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 26
    • Report Tweet
    • Report NetzDG Violation

    What exactly was the error in the imperial college model?

    12:09 PM - 26 Mar 2020
    • 9 Likes
    • 🕶 Bombadil Brin Internet Person Dwarkesh Patel micah.fyi Philippe Maybe: Th𐃏mas Lisankie
    9 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Dan Hon‏ @hondanhon Mar 26
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        Replying to @vgr

        AFAIK the initial error was "not using known data about covid-19 in prior reports" and the 9th report/16 March report "corrected" that. Is that the error you're thinking of? Or are you thinking of an error *in* the 16 March report?

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Philippe‏ @phil_huot Mar 26
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        Replying to @hondanhon @vgr

        Think he's referring to "errors" in the 03/16 report. See this:https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/ …

        2 replies 1 retweet 2 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. Peter Borah‏ @PeterBorah Mar 26
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        Replying to @vgr

        There wasn't one. Somehow, "we're locking down, and so we get the lockdown outcome" got spun into a dramatic reversal of opinion.

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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      1. Maynard Handley‏ @handleym99 Mar 26
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        Replying to @vgr

        None. The tweet and the article it refers to are pure clickbait, badly written crap. Read the NewScientist article linked to by Philippe to get the ACTUAL, very different, story.

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Rob Knight‏ @rob_knight Mar 26
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        Replying to @vgr

        Why do you think there was one? Genuine question, I am puzzled by why people think this.

        2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Rob Knight‏ @rob_knight Mar 26
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        Replying to @rob_knight @vgr

        I'm seeing people getting upset because the projected outcome has changed, and they're blaming "the model". But models are just tools for reasoning from assumptions to outcomes. If the assumptions were wrong, the outcomes would be wrong ("pray tell, Mr. Babbage" and all that).

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. will minshew‏ @wminshew Mar 26
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        Replying to @vgr

        will minshew Retweeted will minshew

        none, the strategy modeled shiftedhttps://twitter.com/wminshew/status/1243270241678852097?s=20 …

        will minshew added,

        will minshew @wminshew
        Replying to @adamdavidlong @TaylorPearsonMe
        I think that was a factor, but my understand is the original model assumed no containment (e.g. lower the curve but still expected to spread to everyone eventually). Now they're recommending sk-style testing & tracing pic.twitter.com/CVQ7iGBy8s
        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      3. will minshew‏ @wminshew Mar 26
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        Replying to @wminshew @vgr

        will minshew Retweeted neil_ferguson

        https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/status/1243294815200124928?s=21 …https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/status/1243294815200124928 …

        will minshew added,

        neil_fergusonVerified account @neil_ferguson
        1/4 - I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19.
        Show this thread
        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      4. Show replies
      1.  🕶‏ @axmed2002 Mar 26
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        Replying to @vgr

         🕶 Retweeted TruthOrFiction.com

        Check this. https://twitter.com/erumors/status/1243293630351065088?s=21 …https://twitter.com/erumors/status/1243293630351065088 …

         🕶 added,

        TruthOrFiction.com @erumors
        Urgent update #2: We have received a response from @neil_ferguson of @imperialcollege regarding the mischaracterization of his report: https://www.truthorfiction.com/imperial-college-londons-covid-19-report-explained/ …
        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Pat Larsen‏ @PatrickLarsen Mar 26
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        Replying to @vgr

        The error was in the reporting, not the model

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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