Why do you think there was one? Genuine question, I am puzzled by why people think this.
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Saw a bunch of gloating tweets float by
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none, the strategy modeled shiftedhttps://twitter.com/wminshew/status/1243270241678852097?s=20 …
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There wasn't one. Somehow, "we're locking down, and so we get the lockdown outcome" got spun into a dramatic reversal of opinion.
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AFAIK the initial error was "not using known data about covid-19 in prior reports" and the 9th report/16 March report "corrected" that. Is that the error you're thinking of? Or are you thinking of an error *in* the 16 March report?
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Think he's referring to "errors" in the 03/16 report. See this:https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/ …
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None. The tweet and the article it refers to are pure clickbait, badly written crap. Read the NewScientist article linked to by Philippe to get the ACTUAL, very different, story.
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The error was in the reporting, not the model
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