What exactly was the error in the imperial college model?
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Why do you think there was one? Genuine question, I am puzzled by why people think this.
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1/4 - I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19.
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There wasn't one. Somehow, "we're locking down, and so we get the lockdown outcome" got spun into a dramatic reversal of opinion.
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None. The tweet and the article it refers to are pure clickbait, badly written crap.
Read the NewScientist article linked to by Philippe to get the ACTUAL, very different, story.
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none, the strategy modeled shifted
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Replying to @adamdavidlong and @TaylorPearsonMe
I think that was a factor, but my understand is the original model assumed no containment (e.g. lower the curve but still expected to spread to everyone eventually). Now they're recommending sk-style testing & tracing
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Check this.
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Urgent update #2: We have received a response from @neil_ferguson of @imperialcollege regarding the mischaracterization of his report:
truthorfiction.com/imperial-colle









