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vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

Tweets

Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

Conversational account. For work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian. IKEA builder.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

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    1. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 25
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      Individuals, corporations, states... emergency funds saved at any level get blown through in months. Stock buybacks are a red herring. Distasteful self-dealing perhaps by some views but if that hadn’t been the norm the outcome would have been no different.

      2 replies 2 retweets 12 likes
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    2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 25
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      Savings in financial form essentially embodying expectations information just are not a good savings instrument for wealth capable of hedging against uncertainty. Uncertainty destroys models. The only place to store wealth surpluses is in capability surpluses.

      1 reply 3 retweets 28 likes
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    3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 25
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      What was bad about stock buybacks was they overvalued production flows in current reality rather than capability stocks in adjacent realities. That’s the pernicious part about them. What if that value had been stored in empty, underutilized hospitals or warehouses ventilators?

      2 replies 3 retweets 20 likes
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    4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 25
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      You know the only area where we understand this? Military capability. If you want peace prepare for war, if you want war prepare for peace. We don’t see piles of barely-used tanks and missiles as unproductive capital. We see it as adjacent possible potentiality.

      3 replies 8 retweets 45 likes
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    5. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 25
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      Ultimately this insanity is due to optimizer mentality. Fat in the system, underutilized resources for alt adjacent realities. That’s mediocritizaton thinking.https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2019/04/15/mediocratopia-4/ …

      3 replies 5 retweets 27 likes
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    6. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 25
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      Insurance is NOT the right way to think about the adjacent possible. Insurance can at best pick out a countably infinite set of scenarios to hedge against. The adjacent possible is a continuum of normal accidents waiting to happen. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_Accidents …

      2 replies 0 retweets 16 likes
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    7. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 25
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      I’m getting seriously mad at optimizer theology. That’s what got us into this mess. Specific ideas like lean/fat don’t kill. Mathematical techniques like optimization don’t kill. What kills is idiots fetishizing what they know over what they don’t. Optimizers incapable of doubt.

      1 reply 5 retweets 48 likes
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    8. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 25
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      Doubt is not uncertainty or risk Doubt is not a probability estimate < 1 Doubt is not ambiguity Doubt is the capacity for living with a consciousness of true ignorance without anxiously covering it up Optimizer theology as opposed to the math of it is about removing doubt

      2 replies 5 retweets 31 likes
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    9. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 25
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      As a friend said earlier today, grrr go brrr

      2 replies 1 retweet 17 likes
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    10. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 25
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      Venkatesh Rao Retweeted Tentatively returning to this hellsite

      Yep https://twitter.com/pneumatik/status/1243034626748080130?s=21 …https://twitter.com/pneumatik/status/1243034626748080130 …

      Venkatesh Rao added,

      Tentatively returning to this hellsite @pneumatik
      Replying to @pneumatik @vgr
      It really summarizes the difference between business and government. Businesses won’t build up stock unless it’s part of some plan to make $$. Government has to do it if it needs to be done. It’s why running government at a high level like a business produces failed government.
      2 replies 1 retweet 8 likes
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      Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 25
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      Venkatesh Rao Retweeted Tentatively returning to this hellsite

      I missed this. This is the sort of flaming idiocy that makes the very sight of trump grate for me. I can tolerate quite a lot of evil if it is smart and quite a lot of stupid if it is kind. It is evil stupid that pisses me off. https://twitter.com/pneumatik/status/1243033644819550209?s=21 …https://twitter.com/pneumatik/status/1243033644819550209 …

      Venkatesh Rao added,

      Tentatively returning to this hellsite @pneumatik
      Replying to @vgr
      You’re getting close to something I’ve been thinking about lately, which is how the government is the provider of last resort for everything important. Trump’s explanation that he eliminated the pandemic response team b/c they were not doing anything really clarified it for me.
      9:43 PM - 25 Mar 2020
      • 1 Retweet
      • 34 Likes
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      1 reply 1 retweet 34 likes
        1. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 25
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          The flip side is that we don’t allow for serendipity (surprising luck) in the adjacent possible any more than we allow for zemblanity (unsurprising bad luck). Insufficient capacity for doubt cuts both ways. Optimizers don’t invent crazy futures. Only fine tune the present.

          0 replies 1 retweet 13 likes
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