The inadequacy of fiscal mechanisms for dealing with global disasters is mind boggling On the one hand, this 2T deal is the largest thing of its kind ever OTOH it buys 3 months of time tops, best case implementation. Drop in this bucket.
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Insurance is NOT the right way to think about the adjacent possible. Insurance can at best pick out a countably infinite set of scenarios to hedge against. The adjacent possible is a continuum of normal accidents waiting to happen. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_Accidents …
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I’m getting seriously mad at optimizer theology. That’s what got us into this mess. Specific ideas like lean/fat don’t kill. Mathematical techniques like optimization don’t kill. What kills is idiots fetishizing what they know over what they don’t. Optimizers incapable of doubt.
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Doubt is not uncertainty or risk Doubt is not a probability estimate < 1 Doubt is not ambiguity Doubt is the capacity for living with a consciousness of true ignorance without anxiously covering it up Optimizer theology as opposed to the math of it is about removing doubt
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I missed this. This is the sort of flaming idiocy that makes the very sight of trump grate for me. I can tolerate quite a lot of evil if it is smart and quite a lot of stupid if it is kind. It is evil stupid that pisses me off. https://twitter.com/pneumatik/status/1243033644819550209?s=21 …https://twitter.com/pneumatik/status/1243033644819550209 …
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The flip side is that we don’t allow for serendipity (surprising luck) in the adjacent possible any more than we allow for zemblanity (unsurprising bad luck). Insufficient capacity for doubt cuts both ways. Optimizers don’t invent crazy futures. Only fine tune the present.
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Can’t JIT a tank?
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and the JIT supply chains suddenly got overwhelmed by shelf-emptying. optimal supply frequency all along the chain became locally very sub-optimal! this is a really excellent thread - thank you. really enjoying mediocritopia blog posts as well
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A jit lean business ethos of optimizing meets its’ bette noir ...
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