Conversation

Shaming people for getting it wrong and then quietly changing their positions is not a great idea. People who happened to get it right — great. You might be the one caught wrong-footed with the next update. Give people room to easily and quickly update positions as facts change.
8
268
There’s a lot of people holding court with holier-than-thou posturing passing judgment on those who have made mistakes in the FUD. Resist that temptation. Doesn’t help signal outrun noise. Only helps allocate blame, which can wait.
2
33
People changing opinions and behaviors is a good thing. Kissing your ass while they do so is not a necessary part of tracking a crazy condition. Being moral exemplars by the standards of your spotless, blameless life isn’t necessary either.
1
35
Media, politicians, celebrities, college kids still on foreign break... people who seem like they’re acting out of some mix of malice, ignorance, and apathy... all just within 3-sigma humans. Give them room to lock on to signal and filter out noise as fast as possible.
1
26
And keep in mind that YOU are probably wrong about several important things concerning the situation right now, and probably harbor a dishonorable motive or two at least subconsciously. Judge not lest yet be judged etc.
1
35
Some people are operating with 20-20 blindsight and mistaking getting lucky for being in command of the situation. You just called it correctly a few times in a row and are probably away from frontlines where calls are hard. The universe hasn’t picked you to reveal the future to.
31