Shaming people for getting it wrong and then quietly changing their positions is not a great idea. People who happened to get it right — great. You might be the one caught wrong-footed with the next update. Give people room to easily and quickly update positions as facts change.
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People changing opinions and behaviors is a good thing. Kissing your ass while they do so is not a necessary part of tracking a crazy condition. Being moral exemplars by the standards of your spotless, blameless life isn’t necessary either.
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Media, politicians, celebrities, college kids still on foreign break... people who seem like they’re acting out of some mix of malice, ignorance, and apathy... all just within 3-sigma humans. Give them room to lock on to signal and filter out noise as fast as possible.
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And keep in mind that YOU are probably wrong about several important things concerning the situation right now, and probably harbor a dishonorable motive or two at least subconsciously. Judge not lest yet be judged etc.
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Table all non-urgent moral reflection and judgment that doesn’t help your OODA loop track and act better. Effective agency first. Narrative reboot later, Judgment Day when it’s all done. And yeah you’ll be held to account too.
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Counterprogram bad information as best you can. Save the moral reform mission for later.
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Some people are operating with 20-20 blindsight and mistaking getting lucky for being in command of the situation. You just called it correctly a few times in a row and are probably away from frontlines where calls are hard. The universe hasn’t picked you to reveal the future to.
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End of conversation
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I've been thinking about this thread a lot. Don't opinions need a bit more epistemic modesty to be forgivable? Stuff like this suggests to me a cavalier approach to journalism far more complex than just misinformed-priors: https://twitter.com/wesyang/status/1243071090303414272 …
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