Here’s @EpsilonTheory arguing we’re in for a brutal and long recovery even though the narrative and metagame have converged on a short+deep recovery.
I’ve actually been leaning towards short+deep due to the 1920 recession, which followed WW1+Spanish Fluhttps://www.epsilontheory.com/our-escape-story/ …
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I have a feeling I may be making some sort of “financialization dualism” error here but I can’t shake the feeling that when a Jenga stack of shaky financial instruments falls, it’s just not as serious as say a hurricane destroying a city or ransomware permanently destroying bits.
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It’s what I call a control failure rather than a plant failure. Bad information washing out. Of course, it can later cause plant failure. That’s the Air France crash pattern. Bad pitot tube data —> autopilot goes nuts —> inexperienced pilot fails to override correctly —> crash.
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So long as you arrest the causal chain before the plane itself crashes, it’s a recoverable error. I’m not sure at what point the financialization control system crashes the economic plane. We’ve caught the pitot tube error at this point.
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End of conversation
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