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vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

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Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

Conversational account. For work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian. IKEA builder.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

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    Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 21
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    Here’s @EpsilonTheory arguing we’re in for a brutal and long recovery even though the narrative and metagame have converged on a short+deep recovery. I’ve actually been leaning towards short+deep due to the 1920 recession, which followed WW1+Spanish Fluhttps://www.epsilontheory.com/our-escape-story/ …

    12:04 PM - 21 Mar 2020
    • 6 Retweets
    • 38 Likes
    • Dan Horton micah.fyi Ian Shakil Gaurav Balre Vermillion002 Phil Degoon 🔴 Mal Tiv Conor White-Sullivan 𐃏🇺🇸
    9 replies 6 retweets 38 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 21
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        I don’t know why the market consensus might be around short+deep but my own reasoning is based on the observation that a lot of the long+brutal has already been logged in the last decade by a lot of people. It’s only the protected buyback-wealthy classes that hadn’t been hit yet.

        3 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
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      3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 21
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        The real economy isn’t in great shape, but no actual non-financial capital is being either destroyed or misallocated that wasn’t already in that state. And afaict no new kinds of non-financial wealth worth protecting are suddenly under threat. 🤔

        1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
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      4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 21
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        I have a feeling I may be making some sort of “financialization dualism” error here but I can’t shake the feeling that when a Jenga stack of shaky financial instruments falls, it’s just not as serious as say a hurricane destroying a city or ransomware permanently destroying bits.

        1 reply 1 retweet 6 likes
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      5. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 21
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        It’s what I call a control failure rather than a plant failure. Bad information washing out. Of course, it can later cause plant failure. That’s the Air France crash pattern. Bad pitot tube data —> autopilot goes nuts —> inexperienced pilot fails to override correctly —> crash.

        1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
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      6. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 21
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        So long as you arrest the causal chain before the plane itself crashes, it’s a recoverable error. I’m not sure at what point the financialization control system crashes the economic plane. We’ve caught the pitot tube error at this point.

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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      7. End of conversation
      1. Kerry‏ @kerry62189 Mar 21
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        Replying to @vgr @EpsilonTheory

        In 1918 they didn't really shut down, did they? That would seem to make a big difference.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Taylor Pearson‏Verified account @TaylorPearsonMe Mar 21
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        Replying to @vgr @EpsilonTheory

        Taylor Pearson Retweeted Amarillo Slim

        Another interesting comp:https://twitter.com/Amarillo_Slim1/status/1240701097884282880 …

        Taylor Pearson added,

        Amarillo Slim @Amarillo_Slim1
        A comp to consider of this pandemic is the HK flu in '69 which experienced 1 million deaths worldwide and killed 100k Americans (0.5% death rate). Market dropped 36% from ALL TIME HIGHS after experiencing a 20-yr bull market followed by a V shaped recovery. Looks eerily similar.. pic.twitter.com/5kS2GwVdyR
        Show this thread
        0 replies 4 retweets 5 likes
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      1. Bronwyn Williams‏ @bronwynwilliams Mar 21
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        Replying to @vgr @EpsilonTheory

        Haha no. In the 1920 depression the fed/gov didn’t mess around with extreme unintended policy lag effects like we all just did. The policy response is the key to the length (less=better). This last week’s panic aid drops=long term/deferred pain. We’re not in 2008 anymore Dorothy.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Bronwyn Williams‏ @bronwynwilliams Mar 21
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        Replying to @vgr @EpsilonTheory

        @RonakGopaldas more in the link here

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Ross Conner‏ @think_obvious Mar 21
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        Replying to @vgr @EpsilonTheory

        I made a basic SIR model and it predicts that this will peak in July without mitigation/suppression, which we definitely don't want. If you suppress (lower the R0) then the peak takes even longer to reach. This will stretch into 2021. It's just math.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Maynard Handley‏ @handleym99 Mar 21
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        Replying to @think_obvious @vgr @EpsilonTheory

        Yes and no. That's the math without a vaccine (or a really high functioning anti-viral med). One or both MIGHT happen in the next six month. Or might not. That's part of the reason it's such a Knightian uncertainty.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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