Last year I learned an ICU heuristic: 1 day in the ICU, especially ventilator, is 1 week in recovery. I think this applies to body politic (economy, culture...) too. One day in quarantine-like conditions is a week in recovery. So 7-8 weeks in this condition is a year in recovery.
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Considered in isolation, China is in for about 3 years of deep recession at least. The US probably the same. The problem is that you can’t consider things in isolation. There’s probably an O(n^2) multiplier when you consider coupled economies (like Shenzhen and SV)
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Replying to @TaylorPearsonMe
Analogy: a couple where both fall ill at the same time will take more time to recover than if only one did. Each will get worse care and there is no slack.
7:48 PM - 19 Mar 2020
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