Last year I learned an ICU heuristic: 1 day in the ICU, especially ventilator, is 1 week in recovery. I think this applies to body politic (economy, culture...) too. One day in quarantine-like conditions is a week in recovery. So 7-8 weeks in this condition is a year in recovery.
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Considered in isolation, China is in for about 3 years of deep recession at least. The US probably the same. The problem is that you can’t consider things in isolation. There’s probably an O(n^2) multiplier when you consider coupled economies (like Shenzhen and SV)
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It doesn’t. Sorry man, you’re wrong. I am writing because I take your writing seriously.
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Prediction depends partially on having salient-enough analogs to elaborate from. So I think we're all flying a bit blind on this one.
But I mean-- maybe.
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