Galaxy brain take: minimize the area between the curve and the capacity line
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This is what I’m thinking. The dynamics here are non-trivial. Key uncertainty is nonlinear increase in fatality rate with height of overage spike 🤔
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Not obvious from inspection that a flatter curve has less overage area, but nonlinear function f (superlinear) is likely which means 6x over limit is not just 2x fatality rate of 3x, it’ll be higher. Some sort of reverse lanchester dynamics going on here
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Lanchester dynamics is a nonl9near model of attrition warfare dynamics where you concentrate forces to maximize damage. An advantage of K gives you K^2 more inflicted dynamics. This is reverse. Spread resources to minimize damage.
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As t increases:
- test capacity ramps up, allowing for better targeted vs. group isolation
- some probability of seasonal effects
- some probability of antivirals or vaccines becoming usable
all collectively lower the expected height of the curve the more it's pushed out
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