Galaxy brain take: minimize the area between the curve and the capacity line
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Not obvious from inspection that a flatter curve has less overage area, but nonlinear function f (superlinear) is likely which means 6x over limit is not just 2x fatality rate of 3x, it’ll be higher. Some sort of reverse lanchester dynamics going on here
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Lanchester dynamics is a nonl9near model of attrition warfare dynamics where you concentrate forces to maximize damage. An advantage of K gives you K^2 more inflicted dynamics. This is reverse. Spread resources to minimize damage.
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Another factor to complicate the picture. The capacity line changes with time. * It drops when medical personnel become ill or supplies are exhausted. * It can increase as efforts to expand capacity and supplies come in. Both add to the value of shifting cases further right.
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Check this out. You might want to model it as a nonlinear ordinary differential equation to test your ideas.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1239171413342289921?s=21 …
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There would be fatalities under the level L too. A2 could even be higher, but A2 scenario would keep hospitals' load manageable.
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