Galaxy brain take: minimize the area between the curve and the capacity line
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This is what I’m thinking. The dynamics here are non-trivial. Key uncertainty is nonlinear increase in fatality rate with height of overage spike 🤔
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Not obvious from inspection that a flatter curve has less overage area, but nonlinear function f (superlinear) is likely which means 6x over limit is not just 2x fatality rate of 3x, it’ll be higher. Some sort of reverse lanchester dynamics going on here
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Lanchester dynamics is a nonl9near model of attrition warfare dynamics where you concentrate forces to maximize damage. An advantage of K gives you K^2 more inflicted dynamics. This is reverse. Spread resources to minimize damage.
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Another factor to complicate the picture. The capacity line changes with time.
* It drops when medical personnel become ill or supplies are exhausted.
* It can increase as efforts to expand capacity and supplies come in.
Both add to the value of shifting cases further right.
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There would be fatalities under the level L too. A2 could even be higher, but A2 scenario would keep hospitals' load manageable.


