This is what I’m thinking. The dynamics here are non-trivial. Key uncertainty is nonlinear increase in fatality rate with height of overage spike
pic.twitter.com/nhGemKpwtF
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This is what I’m thinking. The dynamics here are non-trivial. Key uncertainty is nonlinear increase in fatality rate with height of overage spike
pic.twitter.com/nhGemKpwtF
Not obvious from inspection that a flatter curve has less overage area, but nonlinear function f (superlinear) is likely which means 6x over limit is not just 2x fatality rate of 3x, it’ll be higher. Some sort of reverse lanchester dynamics going on here
Lanchester dynamics is a nonl9near model of attrition warfare dynamics where you concentrate forces to maximize damage. An advantage of K gives you K^2 more inflicted dynamics. This is reverse. Spread resources to minimize damage.
meaning above or below?
Above
That's what got us in this mess in the first place!
Haha yes! This!
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