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So if the ER spike started March 1 and the incubation period is ~4-14 days, it must have entered the region Feb 15-26.
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NYC, like many cities, compiles flu data from all ERs to help track flu season. Below are patients presenting for Influenza Like Illness (ILI) over the past 6 months. Notice flu season peaks and then recedes. Then right at March 1, it begins to shoot back up dramatically.
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