Conversely, someone who owns no stocks, is unbanked, and can’t get any credit has no direct exposure to the meltdown right now. They’d be totally pleased to just get airdropped cash to stay home, and a free drive-through COVID-19 test.
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What have I learned if I lose the same amount on a miscalled S&P put? Just that I was wrong about beliefs about beliefs among a bunch of MtG-playing gods. Strikes me as... not very satisfying or meaningful. It’s also the reason I haven’t stocked up a million rolls of toilet paper
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Yep, TP hoarding beyond your immediate needs, factoring in stock outs due to average TP-insanity levels, is the same exotic-financialization trader mindset. It’s just accessible to the prepper-poors. “Woohoo, I’ll sell my surplus TP at 100 rounds of ammo per roll when SHTF.”
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Note though that vacuity of the underlying beliefs is what *creates* huge upside potential. A great stock bet might appreciate 10-100x. A great derivative bet can net you >1000x. A division by zero effect. That’s why nihilism makes for good traders. It rewards low meaning more.
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You get high returns in 1 of 2 ways: betting on less meaningful stuff, adding more leverage to bets on more meaningful stuff (trading on margin). Two vectors away from reality. This is why I like crypto btw. It’s completely open about operating with a very low reality preference.
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I have a similar mindset, though I too worry that it is impoverishing sometimes. Other people's beliefs *are* an important part of reality (which is what Epsilon Theory's whole thesis is about).
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Also, fwiw, the whole "value investor" ethos is fairly "reality- grounded", which is why it attracts people who find the more "vacuous" segments of the market too nauseating.
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