Skip to content
By using Twitter’s services you agree to our Cookies Use. We and our partners operate globally and use cookies, including for analytics, personalisation, and ads.

This is the legacy version of twitter.com. We will be shutting it down on June 1, 2020. Please switch to a supported browser, or disable the extension which masks your browser. You can see a list of supported browsers in our Help Center.

  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • About

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?

    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

Tweets

Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

This is my conversational account. For my work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

Tweets

  • © 2020 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Imprint
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list


    Under 100 characters, optional

    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    1. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 13
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      The 5% that’s about stuff is interesting whether or not you personally have money. You have skin in that game by virtue of simply being alive and made of atoms as a meatbag with sensors that can experience the world. The 95% is only interesting if you buy in.

      3 replies 0 retweets 37 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 13
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      “I sold some stock/crypto and suddenly I have an opinion on the capital gains tax” effect.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P5GVkX__86g …

      1 reply 0 retweets 24 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 13
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      I think a few years ago I briefly considered trading some covered calls and very briefly I had an opinion about options trading. Then I got distracted by Pluto photos from New Horizons or something. My kryptonite when it comes to $ is too much nerdy interest in reality.

      2 replies 0 retweets 26 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 13
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      It really is the religion of our times. Back in the day you had to believe in Christianity to find the question of angels on a pinhead interesting. Now you have to believe in the economy. In both cases costly buy-in signals required first.

      1 reply 2 retweets 29 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 13
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      Some day I hope to get religion. But I can’t shake the feeling that there’s no there there. Beliefs about beliefs about beliefs is just noise past a point. Like really, technically noise. That’s why you don’t numerically differentiate noisy sensors too much in control theory.

      1 reply 1 retweet 18 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 13
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      This makes me a reactionary I guess. If you carry my line of thought too far, you land on injunctions against usury in Islam, where even basic interest is sinful. The pragmatic line is “when are we adding more noise than signal with the next degree of indirection?”

      2 replies 0 retweets 17 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 13
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      It’s not just many levels of indirection that kill you. It is layers of leveraged indirection built on top of a noise-limited set of signals. Like trading on the future rolling of a marble on the deck of a ship in a storm, where coordinate frame is local galactic supercluster.

      1 reply 0 retweets 24 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 13
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      I think I draw the line at a fiat economy with interest rate mechanism and a basic futures market. Ie instruments based on predictions about stuff. Anything more exotic you’re asking for trouble.

      4 replies 0 retweets 17 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 13
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      It’s also bullshit work; created to keep people busy. It just happens to be bullshit work crafted for very high IQ genius types instead of mediocre minds fit only for bureaucracy. Cheaper to create than comicbook extended universes. No need for pesky artists and camera crews.

      1 reply 2 retweets 30 likes
      Show this thread
    10. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 13
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      The ability to get lost in the higher realms of exotic financialization is exactly the same as the ability to get lost in comicbook universes. Imagination plus IQ. But with much more boldness than MCU demands.

      1 reply 0 retweets 19 likes
      Show this thread
      Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 13
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      Higher physics has been the same way lately which is why there’s a natural brain drain to finance.

      10:52 AM - 13 Mar 2020
      • 2 Retweets
      • 13 Likes
      • Daniel Keller 🕳 Consultant Frank Rerarom Tom James Nathaniel Eliot Josh Levent 𓉡 scandi crime show overhead tracking shot Nimayi
      2 replies 2 retweets 13 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 13
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          I have to wonder: what happens if this time around the bailout is ONLY for the 5%. Inject capital into stuff economy. The banks get a piece if stuff-people decide to give them a piece. Reinflate the economy bottom up rather than top down. Impossible thought experiment of course.

          4 replies 4 retweets 30 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 13
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          1 trillion divided by 330 million is about $3000. Here’s a thought: airdrop $9,000 into the checking account of every American. Cost: $3T. A mere 3x-ing of the deficit. Let’s see how much trickles upwards into exotica. Test how much skin in the game we *want* in Wall Street.

          5 replies 6 retweets 33 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 13
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Heh strikes me that a taste for exotic financial products among the ultrawealthy is kinda the same as their taste for exotic game meats in Wuhan, which I hear is a scarcity era necessity from cultural revolution now driven by demand from rich elites. Both risk exotic diseases.

          3 replies 2 retweets 29 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 13
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Venkatesh Rao Retweeted Dave@home

          tldr of my thread 😆 https://twitter.com/davecporter/status/1238183623624396802?s=21 …https://twitter.com/davecporter/status/1238183623624396802 …

          Venkatesh Rao added,

          Dave@home @davecporter
          Really proud of whoever fixed the memory leak in the S&P over the last few weeks! pic.twitter.com/IHshCPH1wg
          Show this thread
          1 reply 2 retweets 17 likes
          Show this thread
        6. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 13
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          If you don’t participate in the higher financial markets, you’ve been signed up for a religion without consent. It’s like if your tax $ were used to fund faith-based initiatives with no strings attached. Violation of separation of church/state. Oh wait they’re doing that too 🤣

          1 reply 1 retweet 24 likes
          Show this thread
        7. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 13
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          World to China: please stop eating pangolins unless you’re literally starving. World to Wall Street: please stop trading pangolin options unless you’re doing it in an opt-in trading card game like MtG. My MtG playing friends are nice. They don’t create tail risks for me.

          1 reply 1 retweet 25 likes
          Show this thread
        8. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 13
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          In Discworld, the gods play a board game up on Cori Celesti where their game moves literally shape discworld history. That’s basically what we have here.https://discworld.fandom.com/wiki/Cori_Celesti …

          2 replies 0 retweets 17 likes
          Show this thread
        9. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 13
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          The gods live in the kingdom of Dunmanifestin on Cori Celesti. Play on “done manifesting”. They have earned fuck-you-money levels of belief among the mortals so their fates are not tied to those of believers. No need to answer prayers or pay attention. https://wiki.lspace.org/mediawiki/Dunmanifestin …

          1 reply 0 retweets 12 likes
          Show this thread
        10. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 13
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          By contrast small gods of discworld are scraping by on low, critical levels of belief, not mass levels of uncritical belief. They have to *work* to keep divine status via belief flows. Better off than mortals since they are immortal but they’re the working rich without FU$.

          2 replies 0 retweets 11 likes
          Show this thread
        11. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 13
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          FU$ = no skin in society game

          2 replies 0 retweets 15 likes
          Show this thread
        12. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 13
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Conversely, someone who owns no stocks, is unbanked, and can’t get any credit has no direct exposure to the meltdown right now. They’d be totally pleased to just get airdropped cash to stay home, and a free drive-through COVID-19 test.

          1 reply 0 retweets 14 likes
          Show this thread
        13. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 13
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          To what extent financialization drives *meaningful* computations is a distinct question from whether it does technically *correct* computations sorting signal from noise and doing arithmetic correctly.

          1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
          Show this thread
        14. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 13
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Alice might correctly bet that Bob is wrong by 2x on his belief about how many angels a Chuck believes Bob thinks fit on a pinhead. Correct but meaningless to non-angel-believers. Especially if *nobody* actually believes in angels. Only in other people’s beliefs about angels.

          3 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
          Show this thread
        15. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 13
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          When you are in traffic, you *are* traffic, but at least everyone is going somewhere from somewhere When you traffic in beliefs about beliefs, you *are* belief... it’s like traffic that’s just going around in circles without trying to get anywhere from anywhere else.

          1 reply 2 retweets 19 likes
          Show this thread
        16. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 13
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Imagine driving around in traffic purely to hit the green stretches on google maps and beat the times on the red stretches. Grand theft auto joyriding. Imagine if that kind of driving behavior were 95% of traffic and you were in 5% trying to drive to work or home or go shopping.

          1 reply 1 retweet 24 likes
          Show this thread
        17. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 13
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Now imagine if the government printed money just to pay people to drive around for no reason. So you get paid by the mile, and big bonuses if you beat point to point times predicted by google maps. I suspect that’s what the economy is at this point.

          2 replies 1 retweet 33 likes
          Show this thread
        18. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 13
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          This week has made me realize that my financial anxiety is 100% a function of my cash positions and guaranteed cash receivables. I‘ve had like zero emotional reaction to watching my retirement portfolio tank. It’s too far away in time. About 20 years before I plan on touching it.

          1 reply 0 retweets 13 likes
          Show this thread
        19. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 13
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          That’s because as a largely passive investor, I’m screwed only if everybody else is as well, which means I have bigger problems anyway. Still the adrenalin rush of my small side bets on individual stocks doing well helps me understand the true market gambling addicts.

          2 replies 0 retweets 15 likes
          Show this thread
        20. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 13
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          The pros say I have high time preference. I say they have low reality preference. We’re both right. For eg I bought $1500 worth of $ZM last week (yes, I’m sheeple). That’s my current play limit. I’d be pleased if that blew up to 15k. But I’d be 10x as pleased with 10k Fed airdrop

          1 reply 1 retweet 8 likes
          Show this thread
        21. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 13
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Why? The latter is more real. Like driving to work. The former is less real, like driving around to catch green stretches on google maps.

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
          Show this thread
        22. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 13
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          But buying $ZM is still more real to me than say buying S&P puts, even though that’s an impoverishing mindset. If my Zoom bet goes to zero, I’ve learned something. My thinking about virtual future is off. I’m wrong to believe that we’re poised for secular shift to remote work.

          2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
          Show this thread
        23. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 13
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          What have I learned if I lose the same amount on a miscalled S&P put? Just that I was wrong about beliefs about beliefs among a bunch of MtG-playing gods. Strikes me as... not very satisfying or meaningful. It’s also the reason I haven’t stocked up a million rolls of toilet paper

          1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
          Show this thread
        24. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 13
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Yep, TP hoarding beyond your immediate needs, factoring in stock outs due to average TP-insanity levels, is the same exotic-financialization trader mindset. It’s just accessible to the prepper-poors. “Woohoo, I’ll sell my surplus TP at 100 rounds of ammo per roll when SHTF.”

          2 replies 2 retweets 5 likes
          Show this thread
        25. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 13
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          Note though that vacuity of the underlying beliefs is what *creates* huge upside potential. A great stock bet might appreciate 10-100x. A great derivative bet can net you >1000x. A division by zero effect. That’s why nihilism makes for good traders. It rewards low meaning more.

          1 reply 1 retweet 8 likes
          Show this thread
        26. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 13
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation

          You get high returns in 1 of 2 ways: betting on less meaningful stuff, adding more leverage to bets on more meaningful stuff (trading on margin). Two vectors away from reality. This is why I like crypto btw. It’s completely open about operating with a very low reality preference.

          1 reply 1 retweet 9 likes
          Show this thread
        27. End of conversation

      Loading seems to be taking a while.

      Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

        Promoted Tweet

        false

        • © 2020 Twitter
        • About
        • Help Center
        • Terms
        • Privacy policy
        • Imprint
        • Cookies
        • Ads info