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Conference is in 52 days and supposedly has 10k attendees. That’s about 10 doubling periods away. Unmitigated spread means about a million infected by then. A random sample would mean about 30 infected people at the event at that point.
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This is assuming official estimates of a 1000 cases. I think it’s likely more like 10k, which means 10 million. ~3%, 300 infected at a 10k event.
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