Amara’s law for tech forecasts seems to get inverted for social forecasts.
Regular (tech): overestimating change in the short term and underestimating it in the long term,
Inverted (social): underestimating change in short term and overestimating it in long term.
Conversation
I have repeatedly fallen for this during the last 5 years. I keep making the right call but getting the horizon wrong by like 2x-3x.
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This makes me think the main feature of a normal social contract is a collective agreement to resist change until it becomes irresistible and then unfolds unexpectedly fast. So you get history as decades when nothing happens and weeks when decades happen.
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I should make a set of timed predictions and then compress all horizons by a factor of 3. Convert long bets to medium bets, medium bets to short. A sort of Lorentz contraction for relativistic Weirding.

