Amara’s law for tech forecasts seems to get inverted for social forecasts. Regular (tech): overestimating change in the short term and underestimating it in the long term, Inverted (social): underestimating change in short term and overestimating it in long term.
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I should make a set of timed predictions and then compress all horizons by a factor of 3. Convert long bets to medium bets, medium bets to short. A sort of Lorentz contraction for relativistic Weirding.
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