Post-pandemic before/after speculative prediction/forecasting thread. Will try to capture ideas that occur to me in a non-valuative way (ie, avoid tagging as dark age/return to light)
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Viewed as a network, the UrbanNet will start shifting from big "cloud datacenter" metros to "network edge fat client" small cities of < 0.25m. Logistics will rewire from hub-spoke to p2p.
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Supply chains will start shifting to intermediates that can be assembled last mile. This is a swing that has had complex cycles before, due to railroads, refrigerated rail cars/trucks, containerization, Chinafication etc. Currently it's finished consumer goods, b2b intermediates.
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So it won't just be hipsters making their own bread. We're making our own alcohol wipes from... 70% alcohol and tissues. If you try this btw, regular 80 proof alcohol won't do. You need everclear or something. People are posting recipes (mostly bad) for home-made hand sanitizer.
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In general, small scale network-edge manufacturing lacks efficiencies of scale, and is harder to automate, but is more agile/flexible ("fat"). There will be demand for high-skill staffed job shops for "semi-homemade" things. Kinda like old-school compounding pharmacies.
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Replying to @vgr
do you see in your scenarios 3D-printing as a key technology? things like artisanal deep learning, raspberry pis and arduinos could also push for automation at the edges
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Yes, but it might take longer than people hope. That stuff seems to find it tough to break out of hobby zone.
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