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vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

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Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

Conversational account. For work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian. IKEA builder.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

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    Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 7
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    I’m increasingly starting to believe this thing has been spreading globally for at least several weeks longer than we think. All the containment was closing stable doors after the horse had bolted. The apparent pandemic is a delayed detection pandemic as testing spreads.

    10:23 AM - 7 Mar 2020
    • 7 Retweets
    • 104 Likes
    • DWF Mhairi Archibald Adam Kazwell Artha Laurian Gridinoc Joshua Skaja snaggly Erlend Dahlen Ganesh
    17 replies 7 retweets 104 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Leigh Honeywell in  🇨🇦‏Verified account @hypatiadotca Mar 7
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        Replying to @vgr

        My new headcanon is that the pneumonia I got in December was this

        1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
      3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 7
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        Replying to @hypatiadotca

        Me too! It was horrible and flu like and lasted 3 weeks starting Dec 24.

        3 replies 0 retweets 13 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. Mark Bao‏ @markbao Mar 7
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        Replying to @vgr

        Yep +1, and +10 on the numbers only reflecting testing rate, not really infection rate. We saw the 'hidden' community spread in WA on a localized level. Extremely likely that same thing happened worldwide.

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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      1. Bravo Johnson‏ @BravoJohnson5 Mar 7
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        Replying to @vgr

        It’s tempting

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      1. Mr. Eli W. Jones‏ @mreliwjones Mar 7
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        Replying to @vgr

        I came to this decision earlier today as well. Given how maximally connected we are, how presumably contagious the Wuhan is... it seems highly unlikely to have it sit isolated for so long. I presume it is everywhere and has been since January.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. hashtagtacos  🌮‏ @VicVijayakumar Mar 7
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        Replying to @vgr

        I have kids and I’m basically sick all the time so who knows 🤷🏾‍♂️

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Nathaniel Eliot‏ @temujin9 Mar 7
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        Replying to @vgr

        Yeah, I've been both incredibly fatalistic about this, and you put a pin in it. China wanted to appear "in control". The US wanted to appear "in control", but our free press poked holes in that theory. If neither were as in control as they claimed, then it's already world-wide.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Nathaniel Eliot‏ @temujin9 Mar 7
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        Replying to @temujin9 @vgr

        Which is oddly good news if true, in that the base rate of infected is higher, and thus the percent which are dangerous or fatal lower than currently calculated. Cold-blooded statistical epidemiology counter-factuals, for the dubious win.

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      4. End of conversation

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