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vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

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Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

Conversational account. For work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian. IKEA builder.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

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    Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 6
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    What’s the percent of severe vs mild cases of non-fatal covidism? Ideally worse than flu/milder than flu stats would be nice to have.

    9:18 AM - 6 Mar 2020
    • 7 Likes
    • Pirates sleep soundly (for Santa) Unni Warren Koch rachel Alex Wagner Vortice Dorian Taylor
    6 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
      1. Dorian Taylor‏ @doriantaylor Mar 6
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        Replying to @vgr

        yeah it's interesting how the media focus is on fatality even though morbidity is probably more relevant since 97% of patients survive (but at what cost?)

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      2. Romain Lacombe‏ @rlacombe Mar 6
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        Replying to @vgr

        The WHO experts who came back from Wuhan on Feb 24 estimate that ~20% of known cases end up in the hospital for weeks, a quarter of which require artificial respiration. https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/fbt49e/the_who_sent_25_international_experts_to_china/ … #COVIDー19

        1 reply 3 retweets 9 likes
      3. Emad‏ @EMostaque Mar 6
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        Replying to @rlacombe @vgr

        Italy has reported 10% in ICU, 20% hospital. It is very age dependent. Flu rates are about 100x lower in that regard. DDOS on hospitals causes the fatality rate to spike and crowds out everything except cancer treatment from Chinese example.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      2. COVID deaths lag case counts by 3-4 weeks‏ @olimay Mar 6
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        Replying to @vgr

        Hospitalization rate stats is probably going to the the best we can get for a while. This comment has the stats for China then links to sources https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/03/02/coronavirus-links-speculation-open-thread/#comment-860357 … Then you can probably cross reference with typical flu hospitalization rate to get a guesstimate

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. COVID deaths lag case counts by 3-4 weeks‏ @olimay Mar 6
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        Replying to @olimay @vgr

        COVID deaths lag case counts by 3-4 weeks Retweeted

        just spotted a chart with flu hospitalization rates https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1236064048724299779?s=20 …

        COVID deaths lag case counts by 3-4 weeks added,

        This Tweet is unavailable.
        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      2. Čhepulis • • •‏ @ingleeshh Mar 6
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        Replying to @vgr

        Honestly, i'm still not sure how to tell apart flu and covid symptoms apart. Second-guessing my every small cough sneeze or headache. The only thing i am certain of is that my hands have never been cleaner.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 6
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        Replying to @ingleeshh

        me neither

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      2. will minshew‏ @wminshew Mar 6
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        Replying to @vgr

        afaict the baseline rates are 50% asynptomatic, 30% mild, 20% severe. But these are pretty misleading because it varies wildly by age and I’ve only seen breakouts for estimate mortality rate, not symptom severity. You might be able to guesstimate though

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Mar 6
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        Replying to @wminshew

        Well the asymptomatic seems hard to take seriously unless they are doing random population sampling, which I don't think anybody is, but yeah, the age variation is the big uncertainty factor. Also comorbidity effects with other conditions (including regular flu)

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. Pirates sleep soundly (for Santa)‏ @Wit_recycler Mar 6
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        Replying to @vgr

        Pirates sleep soundly (for Santa) Retweeted NBC News

        https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1235786467420581888?s=19 …

        Pirates sleep soundly (for Santa) added,

        1:25
        NBC NewsVerified account @NBCNews
        WATCH: "The best estimates now of the overall mortality rate for COVID-19 is somewhere between 0.1% and 1%," Adm. Brett Giroir, assistant secretary for health at HHS, says. "That's lower than you heard probably in many reports ... it's not likely in the range of 2 to 3%" pic.twitter.com/ATnMRBLXVy
        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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