Trying to come up with an even simpler non-realistic toy example based on the classic Russian roulette example everybody uses. Imagine N people playing Russian roulette with six-shooter revolvers, repeatedly.https://twitter.com/vgr/status/1234555199307407365 …
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Consider remainder-fatality statistics. After the first shot, 1/6 are dead. After the second, 1/5 of the remaining people are dead, after the third, 1/4, after the fourth, 1/3, after the fifth, 1/2, and with the 6th, everybody left dies. And then there were none.
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There's a very Monty Hall energy about this game. Obviously nobody would play this even once without incentives, and nobody would play the 6th round at all, since you're guaranteed death. What would make people play?
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Relative to the initial N, each round eliminates 1/6. So with N=6, 5 rounds cuts it down to 1 person left alive. With N=12, you get L=2 (last round population), etc.
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Example. There are 12 people trapped on a planet about to explode. Vogons offer to save 2 people in return for all the Altairian dollars all 12 have together. Iterated Russian roulette would be a good way to choose. Survivors take dead people's dollars. Last 2 alive take seats
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Actually, the primary candidate selection process we just went through is kinda like this. If you don't get 15% you're dead. Delegates get divided up among the rest.
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Thought of an actual fictional example... the scene in Sholay were the bandit leader Gabbar Singh plays 3-chamber Russian roulette with his 3 henchmen who messed up a raid (Hindi)https://youtu.be/8gX4rPLjpkU?t=350 …
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Here, Gabbar uses a revolver with 3 bullets, 3 empty chambers. All 3 escape the first round and everybody starts laughing that they all escaped. Then he turns around and shoots then all anyway.
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Though crucially, he empties the first 3 chambers by firing into the air, so the remaining three are in sequence, not randomly distributed. So when he randomizes by spinning the cylinder, there's only 1/6 chance of starting in a way that yields that particular outcome.
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Replying to @vgr
Never thought I'd be looking at a clip from Sholay in 2020.
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There is no wrong time to look at a clip from sholay
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Replying to @vgr
The real surprise was finding it in the middle of a thread about the dem primary delegate allocation process. Surprise Sholay.
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