2/ Let’s call it the Perez Problem, after Carlota Perez. It’s the problem of how a complex society deploys complex new technology requiring a degree of coordination and convention, like say the internet (a protocol convention) or vaccines.
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13/ In practice the problem is not that tightly constrained and all 3 mitigations are available to a degree. Also, it’s rarely 3 static futures, and the fatality rate is rarely a big fraction of test population. So early experimentation leads to iterative refinement of options.
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14/ So societies have a deployment path that looks like a fractal generated from (Parallel —> Refactor Options —> Series) across space and time
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15/ The key to the practical solution is to guess the scaling phase transition points correctly across fractal levels, so you can switch between parallel/series gears and refactor options at the right time. The “series” option looks like “exploit” locally in time/space.
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16/ Throwing in some links that inspired this line of thinking. First
@TaylorPearsonMe Big Little Idea Called Ergodicityhttps://taylorpearson.me/ergodicity/Show this thread -
17/ Ole Peters 2019 Nature article which seems to have caused this current surge of interest, "The ergodicity problem in economics"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41567-019-0732-0 …
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Wright Meets Markowitz, via
@mengwong http://research.economics.unsw.edu.au/vpanchenko/papers/WriteMeetsMarkowitz.pdf …Show this thread -
Founder effect: non-ergodicity in nature https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Founder_effect …
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End of conversation
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