Conversation

The viral pandemic-and-recession is kinda an apt end to a decade defined by best/worst of virality as a dynamic. The 10s were the decade of the virus. Good and bad, mind and body.
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I’m guessing about 20% of the most precarious will be hit hard (loss of income in small biz supply work in China and service work in the west). 80% will get enforced reflection and refactor time, as demand slump, quarantine/social distancing gives us some slack to fill.
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I am guessing short sharp recession of about a year. This seems relatively predictable via supply shock and service-work demand slump due to social distancing. I guess prepper inventory sectors will see a slight uptick to extent they aren’t also vulnerable to the supply shock.
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It’s a big natural experiment that will teach us about: 1. Fragility of lean, single-source supply chains 2. Precarious incomes 3. Fragility of service economies 4. Climate response to economic fundamentals shock 5. Effect of healthcare institutional decay 6. Remote/virtual work
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I’m very curious about how workplaces will function during this period. Private life will obviously just be a bit more domestic cozy for a while (a few months to weeks now and in fall). More TV and reading and at-home cooking. But workplaces...hmmm... hard to call.
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Forgot big one: 7. Public social life impact around big social gatherings a) Olympics b) US election rallies c) concerts, conferences etc d) Third-place work (Starbucks) ... Hmm. What “canary” portfolio would be interesting to watch as indicator of how things are going?
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Replying to
Everything you say is predicated on the idea that things change after a big effect. Not if that's inconvenient, they don't. What changed after 2007 financial meltdown? There'll be lots of talk, sure. But real change? As much as we saw from 2008 to 2010, ie none...
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