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I’m guessing about 20% of the most precarious will be hit hard (loss of income in small biz supply work in China and service work in the west). 80% will get enforced reflection and refactor time, as demand slump, quarantine/social distancing gives us some slack to fill.
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I am guessing short sharp recession of about a year. This seems relatively predictable via supply shock and service-work demand slump due to social distancing. I guess prepper inventory sectors will see a slight uptick to extent they aren’t also vulnerable to the supply shock.
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It’s a big natural experiment that will teach us about: 1. Fragility of lean, single-source supply chains 2. Precarious incomes 3. Fragility of service economies 4. Climate response to economic fundamentals shock 5. Effect of healthcare institutional decay 6. Remote/virtual work
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I’m very curious about how workplaces will function during this period. Private life will obviously just be a bit more domestic cozy for a while (a few months to weeks now and in fall). More TV and reading and at-home cooking. But workplaces...hmmm... hard to call.
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Forgot big one: 7. Public social life impact around big social gatherings a) Olympics b) US election rallies c) concerts, conferences etc d) Third-place work (Starbucks) ... Hmm. What “canary” portfolio would be interesting to watch as indicator of how things are going?
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Example: $ZM is up. Baltic dry index is down. Need like a dozen more indicators to track all 7 obvious expected impacts. These are known unknown things.
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Replying to
It’s also an interesting reversal from ‘08 when China decidedly had to shift focus from US-consumer led demand to internal demand to minimize future economic contagion; now a literal health contagion is going to put pressure on US companies to diversify their supply chains
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