I’ll be voting Warren in primary and any democrat over Trump in main. I expect outcome to be: 55% Trump re-elected, 25% Bernie wins nom and beats Trump, 20% someone else wins nom and beats Trump. So 80% probability of 4 more years of populism.
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Bernie over Trump because though his stated ideology is as scary, he seems decent enough to listen to people who disagree, and not let either pure ideologies or pure grifters run amok.
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Either way, expectations of politics 2020-24: 55% emboldened and worse near-fascism, 25% marginally better thanks to better personal integrity at top with reversed polarity socialist populism, 20% lame failed attempt to return to 2015 technocratism that will be mostly harmless.
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Vote etc, but then get back to the A-plot: infrastructure of global economy. The culture war and populist politics stuff is now a sideshow freak tent. The main event has started in the big tent. Welcome to the anthropocene. Covid-19 will be Act 1 ringmaster.
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