i just can’t shake the feeling that the public markets would be imploding by now if there was any rational reason to guess at catastrophe
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Territory > map
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is the Spanish Flu answer the "extreme" case?
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The math would suggest that wouldn’t it
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Whether I am predicting the mode or the mean skews everythjng.
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Being pedantic you didn’t specify what “how serious” refers to. It’s already much more serious for 750mn Chinese lives affected by containment, 100x worse for Chinese econ & 10x worse for global economy than regular flu. Similarly much worse for CCP credibility than flu.
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My guess on what the distro would be was: 10%, 45%, 35%, 10%.
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Who says we are talking about deaths? Why not economic impact? Why not lack of births?
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