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But the magnitude of the change is lower: ~70% of model-predicted CO₂ forcing is actually detected:
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My manuscript preprint is online: arxiv.org/abs/1911.10605 It represents two years of work selecting and averaging IR measurements. 50.7 billion measurements collected over 17 years by a $952 million satellite = Empirical measurement of CO₂ forcing, no computer models.
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Since this is exclusively cloud-clear data, I think the most likely cause of the difference is the (unknown) vertical temperature profile (VTP). Earth’s atmosphere is alternating layers of warm-cold-warm-cold-warm:
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