sci fashion future priors: beige onesies: 30% apocalyptic henleys 30% trash couture: 20% technical athleisure: 10% outlandish haute fashion: 10%
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If you're predicting an aspect of the future, what % should you allocate to "something surprising that's not in my set of priors", and how do level set that %?
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Like technically there is a nonzero probability that none of the candidates for potus will be president in 2021, because an asteroid has hit the earth or something... how should you set a % for that class of out-of-model unknown-unknown scenarios?
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I am not satisfied with black-swan or antifragile thinking around this question
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