hmm sets of priors probably shouldn't add up to 100%
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If you're predicting an aspect of the future, what % should you allocate to "something surprising that's not in my set of priors", and how do level set that %?
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Like technically there is a nonzero probability that none of the candidates for potus will be president in 2021, because an asteroid has hit the earth or something... how should you set a % for that class of out-of-model unknown-unknown scenarios?
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I am not satisfied with black-swan or antifragile thinking around this question
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End of conversation
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You forgot
@tacticalcorsets!Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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You need to at least scope your fashion. Time, place, social group. Otherwise you’re just playing “ desert planet”, “snow planet”, ... Every where and when but earth till 2100 is identical!?!
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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