Conversation

If you're predicting an aspect of the future, what % should you allocate to "something surprising that's not in my set of priors", and how do level set that %?
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Like technically there is a nonzero probability that none of the candidates for potus will be president in 2021, because an asteroid has hit the earth or something... how should you set a % for that class of out-of-model unknown-unknown scenarios?
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Replying to
You need to at least scope your fashion. Time, place, social group. Otherwise you’re just playing “ desert planet”, “snow planet”, ... Every where and when but earth till 2100 is identical!?!