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When you get near 100% confident in a belief, you internalize it, which means it sinks into the unconscious. To hold a belief consciously is to hold it with non-trivial amounts of doubt. The doubt level of stuff you say tends to be matched. We rarely mix confidence levels.
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Most people have a comfortable doubt level, so in a belief stack, they’ll add refinements to high confidence beliefs till they get to sufficiently doubtful stuff that’s impedance matches to confidence posture. This is a personality trait. I spitball, you talk like a lawyer, etc.
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This is why people who act stridently confident about everything seem crazy. Their confidence level signals the kind of belief that for normal people would link to unconscious beliefs, but the content is high-doubt stuff for most people. Derp, hustleporn follow this pattern.
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Null hypothesis: they are in denial about actual doubt level because they have a lot riding on the belief. Alt hypothesis: they know something you don’t, and haven’t revealed it yet. Perhaps even to themselves. (assuming they’re not merely mistaken or dunning-krugered)
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