@TaylorPearsonMe know of any work applying ergodicity to innovation? As in, if 1 in a 100 wild ideas (in some broad sense) will pay off in 1 year, then 1 wild idea might pay off for sure if the bunnytrail is pursued for 100 years...
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(I believe this to be true btw... almost any wild idea, if pursued for long enough in a sufficiently open-ended way, will eventually get somewhere new and interesting)
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Replying to @josephkelly @TaylorPearsonMe
Actually it could go either fox or hedgehog or what
@JoeEdelman calls turtles. The key is to stay in a compounding interest epistemic bunnytrail for long enough, not the cognitive style. Fox = make 100 pots Hedgehog = make the best pot3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes -
Replying to @vgr @josephkelly and
I think
@josephkelly is on to something here. The key to being an effective hedgehog (vs cactus) is the open-ended way that the hedgehog pursues the singular wild idea. The key to being an effective fox is not volume of ideas, but skillful curation of ideas.1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes -
Replying to @bhudgeons @vgr and
And this assumes ergodicity. Only ergodic challenges can be met by either a fox or a hedgehog. If non-ergotic, it is probably better suited to one or the other.
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Tagging the right Joe Edelman
@edelwax this time and untagging the wrong one. I think Joe's turtle archetype refactors the right bits of fox and hedgehog into one actually https://www.notion.so/Turtleocracy-47a6df7692bf4e95a39504a73a50a295 … so you could say we're talking 2 flavors of turtle1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes -
Replying to @vgr @bhudgeons and
I think of hedgehogs over long time horizons as people with a pet theory for which they seek confirmation/disconfirmation over time, with a scientific mindset of quality dependent on talent ranging from crackpot to effective. INTJs trying to build a theory of everything for eg
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Replying to @vgr @bhudgeons and
Foxes over a long horizon otoh are more like training a pattern recognition for long-term patterns, placing small bets along the way, and doubling down on the ones that pay off.
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Replying to @vgr @bhudgeons and
So I think ergodicity applies more to foxes than hedgehogs here, because hedgehogs have a more totalizing/systematizing filter that creates a kind of tunnel vision. Taleb has elements of both hedgehog and fox turtleness.
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More speculatively, weasels and cacti, which are degenerate foxes and hedgehogs in my model, can be seen as the result of *failure* of each strategy to pay off. Foxes whose small bets never pay off turn into weasels. Hedgehogs whose totalizing theories don't work turn into cacti.
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Replying to @vgr @bhudgeons and
Dropping this link in here for anyone following this thread who doesn't know what I'm talking abouthttps://www.ribbonfarm.com/2014/02/20/the-cactus-and-the-weasel/ …
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