Epistemic status: searching for truthiness
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Ah sounds like it’s called the unexpected hanging paradox in the literature. I’d like a less contrived example. Like people being genuinely surprised when Trump won, even though it was a formal possibility all along. I think that maps here somehow. https://twitter.com/mreliwjones/status/1216891689660489729?s=21 …https://twitter.com/mreliwjones/status/1216891689660489729 …
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It seems like a correlate of Newcomb https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newcomb%27s_paradox …
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Based on this kind of logic (link) - if W is 100% able to predict whether P will be surprised to die on any given day, what P has to do is hold a state of mind where that information has no novelty...https://www.econlib.org/archives/2016/02/yudkowskys_insi.html …
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Ah yes
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Unexpected Hanging paradox.
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