Epistemic status: searching for truthiness
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Ah sounds like it’s called the unexpected hanging paradox in the literature. I’d like a less contrived example. Like people being genuinely surprised when Trump won, even though it was a formal possibility all along. I think that maps here somehow. https://twitter.com/mreliwjones/status/1216891689660489729?s=21 …https://twitter.com/mreliwjones/status/1216891689660489729 …
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It's because there's an asymmetry in how time passes? I don't know, I never got this one.
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That’s part of it. You’re doing induction backwards in time but your knowledge is growing forward in time. What you know you will know on Thu night is illegal to use on Wed night for inference unless you know for sure *on* Wed night you’ll actually make it to Thu night.
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You could make it more Monty Hall-y like so: There are two doors, Door 1 and Door 2. A prize is behind one and you will be surprised when you see! BUT, you have to open Door 1 first.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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