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vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

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Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

Conversational account. For work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian. IKEA builder.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

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    1. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jan 13
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      Epistemic status: searching for truthiness

      1 reply 1 retweet 17 likes
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    2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jan 13
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      Most truthiness isn’t outrageous bullshit. It’s just regular truth with scope qualifications and caveats and doubts removed, and confidence rounded up to 100%.

      2 replies 1 retweet 8 likes
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    3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jan 13
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      Lowers cognitive burden of maintaining possible worlds where an idea is not true. It’s almost the definition of “believing”. Truth can only be held in a contingent, unsatisfying way. To get to fulfilling belief you have to drop doubt and possible worlds based on doubt.

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
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    4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jan 13
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      So truthiness is about turning ◇ into □ via degeneracy

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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    5. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jan 13
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      Modal degeneracy. “X is true in all possible worlds because I have managed to render myself unconscious to ones in which it might not be” In case it isn’t obvious I approve of this procedure. So long as you extend to others the courtesy of recognizing their right to do the same.

      1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
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      Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jan 13
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      If you can learn to be genuinely surprised at something happening that you actually knew could happen, but managed to forget you knew, you’ve learned how to believe. Black belt: being stunned and blindsided by utterly predictable stuff playing out in utterly predictable ways.

      4:44 PM - 13 Jan 2020
      • 1 Retweet
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      • alpach Paul Kreiner maxwellroe 빵구쟁이 _
      2 replies 1 retweet 5 likes
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        2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jan 13
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          I recall my 9th grade biology teacher told us a joke/paradox about surprise that illustrates the process. On Saturday, warden tells prisoner: “you will be executed between now and Friday, on a day that will surprise you.” ...

          1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
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        3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jan 13
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          Prisoner smugly infers he’s safe from execution, why? Well, he can’t be executed on Friday because then he’d know by Thursday night and it wouldn’t be surprising. But then he can’t be executed on Thursday either, and so on recursively through to Sunday. Yay, he’s safe!

          1 reply 1 retweet 0 likes
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        4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jan 13
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          On Tuesday, warden executes the prisoner, who is very surprised.

          1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
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        5. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jan 13
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          I still haven’t come up with a satisfying account of this paradox. It’s a bit like the Monty hall problem in time

          3 replies 1 retweet 3 likes
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        6. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jan 13
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          Does this paradox have a well-known name?

          4 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        7. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jan 13
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          Venkatesh Rao Retweeted Mr. Eli W. Jones

          Ah sounds like it’s called the unexpected hanging paradox in the literature. I’d like a less contrived example. Like people being genuinely surprised when Trump won, even though it was a formal possibility all along. I think that maps here somehow. https://twitter.com/mreliwjones/status/1216891689660489729?s=21 …https://twitter.com/mreliwjones/status/1216891689660489729 …

          Venkatesh Rao added,

          Mr. Eli W. Jones @mreliwjones
          Replying to @vgr
          https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unexpected_hanging_paradox#Description_of_the_paradox …
          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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        8. End of conversation
        1. Arlyn Culwick‏ @arlynculwick Jan 14
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          Replying to @vgr

          No man. https://twitter.com/vgr/status/1216883640795201536?s=19 … https://en.m.wikisource.org/wiki/A_Neglected_Argument_for_the_Reality_of_God …pic.twitter.com/XFjuJKKeHK

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