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vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

Tweets

Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

This is my conversational account. For my work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

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    Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr Jan 12
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    Is there such a thing as variable-discount-rate DCF/NPV modeling? Like setting different discount rates for cash flow expected at different times? My discount rate is definitely not fixed.

    11:53 AM - 12 Jan 2020
    • 4 Likes
    • blue dog baskethammer James Barton Avy Faingezicht
    6 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. SGA‏ @SGA_VC Jan 12
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        Replying to @vgr

        Yes — for a public example you can take a look at analyst day presentations or sellside research for alternative asset managers

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. SGA‏ @SGA_VC Jan 12
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        Replying to @SGA_VC @vgr

        Earnings from management fees are typically given a higher exit multiple / lower discount rate than earnings from incentive fees. So sellside analysts do sum of the parts

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Matt Elder‏ @fiddlemath Jan 13
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        Replying to @vgr

        Sure. Discount rates are themselves a theoretical simplification of valuing cash-in-hard different at different times. When you have a better model of your own situation than the default tools would, use the better model.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. New conversation
      2. Daniel Doyon‏ @deadly_onion Jan 13
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        Replying to @vgr

        Ya, it’s called Hyperbolic Discounting. Useful explanation for why people don’t do what’s supposedly in their best interests, long-term. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperbolic_discounting …

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Daniel Doyon‏ @deadly_onion Jan 13
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        Replying to @deadly_onion @vgr

        “We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.” Technological change unfolds exponentially, like compound interest, and we humans seem wired to think about exponential phenomena in flawed ways. (Breaking Smart)

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. Leeson’s VaR‏ @LeesonsVaR Jan 12
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        Replying to @vgr

        Pretty sure that’s how it’s always supposed to be done..? Every single bond/derivative NPV calculator is discounting based on some observable curve (e.g., OIS-discounting for a USD vanilla interest rate swap) that inherently discounts CFs variably based on the shape of the curve.

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      1. Catherine Baab-Muguira‏ @Greedzilla1 Jan 12
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        Replying to @vgr

        @valueterminal do you know?

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. blue dog‏ @SeanMombo Jan 12
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        Replying to @vgr

        I heard about some machine learning systems for video game microtransactions. They try to figure out what price an individual will pay for an item, and the optimal time/method to show it to them. Sounds really exploitative and not something that should exist in games.

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