By my market-analogy mental model, looking for causal models here, let alone exclusively determinative one, is as misguided. The market and trump do not work on mechanistic causation but via emergence from information pricing. https://twitter.com/vgr/status/1214045055243051008?s=21 …https://twitter.com/vgr/status/1214045055243051008 …
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As in, hurricanes are not “caused” by individual gusts of wind lining up but heat and now pressure regions. In a way, Trump *is* the notional “rogue field commander” envisioned in brinkmanship scenarios. He just happens to be at the top. Brinkmanship in the core.
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Replying to @Aelkus
I’d say @EpsilonTheory narrative analysis is an example of that approach. Maybe we get to real psychohistory via market-like theories of trumpian geopolitics “weather” phenomena.
9:37 AM - 6 Jan 2020
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