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By my market-analogy mental model, looking for causal models here, let alone exclusively determinative one, is as misguided. The market and trump do not work on mechanistic causation but via emergence from information pricing.
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Post hoc arguments justifying market outcomes are eerily similar in structure to arguments justifying Trumpian outcomes. Like they believe in some sort of efficient trump hypothesis. 🤔
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As in, hurricanes are not “caused” by individual gusts of wind lining up but heat and now pressure regions. In a way, Trump *is* the notional “rogue field commander” envisioned in brinkmanship scenarios. He just happens to be at the top. Brinkmanship in the core.