Conversation

My anecdotal observations fit this, but I wonder if this phenomenon is a result not of beliefs but of a) class solidarity + b) law of large numbers = greater chance of an anchor altruist or two emerging in the mass-class to coordinate non-tragic commons responses
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If 1 in 100 is altruist leader and there are 100 coach and 10 first class passengers the coach class will achieve altruistic coordination and first class will go Hobbesian with 90% probability right?
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Replying to
Close but not quite. P(coordinate) = 1 - P(no alturist); P(coordinate|coach) = 1 - 0.99^100 = 0.74 ; P(coordinate|first) = 1 - 0.99^10 = 0.0956
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Replying to
it is handy to remember: when sampling if base rate is 1 in N, and I sample N then a bit over a third of the time I get none. Works for all values of N.
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