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vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

Tweets

Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

This is my conversational account. For my work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

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    1. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 28 Dec 2019
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      Venkatesh Rao Retweeted Venkatesh Rao

      A couple of weeks ago I did some psychohistorical reflecting about the next decade, and decided it should be called the Searing Twenties. The mood and energy I’m sensing is a darker, rougher version of the Roaring Twenties a century ago.https://twitter.com/vgr/status/1205735286761615360 …

      Venkatesh Rao added,

      Venkatesh Rao @vgr
      I have named the coming decade The Searing Twenties. Like the Roaring 20s a century ago, except it will involving a lot of burning and scorching.
      4 replies 23 retweets 72 likes
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    2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 28 Dec 2019
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      The temporal rhyming with the 1920s is strong: Exactly 100 years later, after a decade of conflict and 30y of a new tech eating the world (mass industrial urban consumerism). A sense of one era ending and another starting. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roaring_Twenties …

      1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
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      Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 28 Dec 2019
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      The Roaring Twenties were marked by an economic boom and bust and the artistic peak of the Lost Generation (b. 1883-1900) who came of age in WW1 and hit their 30s/40s caught between worlds. That sounds like the outer situation of the Millennials to me: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Generation …

      5:00 PM - 28 Dec 2019
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      • Kerry Ellard Alex Schleber 👽😷 Billy Smith Nick Parker JUSTIN PUSHAS QC elliot Jacob Gordon Rob Salkowitz
      2 replies 1 retweet 9 likes
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        2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 28 Dec 2019
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          By Strauss-Howe though, the rhyme is off. The Lost Generation was a nomad generation like Gen X, while Millennials are a Hero generation like the Greatest (WW2). So either we blend in a different decadal analogy (1940s) or drop Strauss-Howe. Let’s blend! https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss–Howe_generational_theory …

          1 reply 1 retweet 6 likes
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        3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 28 Dec 2019
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          Venkatesh Rao Retweeted Rob Salkowitz

          Co-opting whatever Rob has to say here into my thread and definition of Searing Twenties, since he’s a Strauss-Howe expert and wrote the book Generation Blend 😎 https://twitter.com/robsalk/status/1211090905794404352?s=21 …https://twitter.com/robsalk/status/1211090905794404352 …

          Venkatesh Rao added,

          Rob Salkowitz @robsalk
          Replying to @vgr
          To complete your analogy, the "Searing 20s" actually began in 2017, when the country, exhausted from 8 years of a polarizing, idealistic crusading President, embraced instead a morally-lax businessman pledging a return to simplicity. A financial boom kicked off... 1/x
          1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
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        4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 28 Dec 2019
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          So our rough framework for Searing Twenties: strong rhyme with 1920s, weaker rhyme with 1940s, Strauss-Howe generational analysis off by 20y. Some basic inferences.

          1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
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        5. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 28 Dec 2019
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          Gen X is nominally in charge in most leadership positions. We are mostly past creative peak unlike the Losts, so a weak artistic boom of mature works may be expected. It’ll be nothing like Hemingway etc but we’ll do our mediocre best at both the art and lame duck leadership.

          3 replies 0 retweets 11 likes
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        6. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 28 Dec 2019
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          Millennials have the context share with Lost but not the generational personality, but are at peak ability. What can we expect? Not art but Institution building, like Greatest Generation during/after WW2. They’ve already done a bunch but things are only now really starting.

          2 replies 2 retweets 9 likes
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        7. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 28 Dec 2019
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          But the institutions won’t be like post-WW2 ones, built by the stridently confident victors of a world war working with a bombed-blank slate and booming economy. They’ll have some of the searching, exploratory, experimental qualities of Lost Gen art. Starships, not Citadels.

          1 reply 2 retweets 15 likes
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        8. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 28 Dec 2019
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          Zoomers are analogous to the Silent Generation: grew up in a traumatized decade (Great Depression vs Great Weirding) so will form the new Organization Man type within Millennial institutions. Premium mediocre starships on the outside, domestic cozy communes on the inside.

          5 replies 0 retweets 15 likes
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        9. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 28 Dec 2019
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          Venkatesh Rao Retweeted Rob Salkowitz

          Okay, changing this call based on Rob’s points. To the extent Zoomers rhyme with Silents they’ll be progressive reformers rather than conformists within Millennial institutions. Domestic cozy Firefly rebel ships rather than starship interiors. https://twitter.com/robsalk/status/1211098235365814273?s=21 …https://twitter.com/robsalk/status/1211098235365814273 …

          Venkatesh Rao added,

          Rob Salkowitz @robsalk
          Replying to @vgr
          Examples include Martin Luther King, Bobby & Teddy Kennedy, Bob Dylan, John Coltrane, Gloria Steinem, Philip Roth, Aretha Franklin, Mohammed Ali. Tell me this was a generation of conformists...
          1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
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        10. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 28 Dec 2019
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          Moving on. “Roaring” is unambiguously positive valence despite hidden troubles. Is the valence of “Searing” as the anchor adjective positive or negative. It is ambiguous tending negative. High energy but not positive. Think climate change as core narrative motif.

          1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
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        11. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 28 Dec 2019
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          Overall gestalt (no specific predictions yet): high, tumultuous, damaging energy, prone to both conflict and creation. There will be burn victims and famous fire fighters. Devastated landscapes (real and allegorical) and new growth amid the ashes.

          1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
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        12. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 28 Dec 2019
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          I’ll possibly turn this into a blogchain, but this thread is by way of being a set of prolegomena. Initial RFC open as I tune the Prime Radiant on this thing. The name of the decade is not up for negotiation, we’re playing for the Big Meme here 🤣

          2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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        13. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 28 Dec 2019
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          Venkatesh Rao Retweeted

          The 1920s actually started with a short, sharp depression and ended with the big one. Should we expect a repeat? https://twitter.com/illiteralworst/status/1211106290274988033?s=21 … https://twitter.com/illiteralworst/status/1211106290274988033 …

          Venkatesh Rao added,

          This Tweet is unavailable.
          1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
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        14. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 28 Dec 2019
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          For different reasons, I think we can expect a crash in the next couple of years. India has already crashed (GDP but not stocks). China is jittery. The US and EU could go either way depending on politics. A decade out, I don’t know. I’m not incl9ned to call a decade long boom.

          0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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        15. End of conversation

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