If your best year at the end of year n was b(n) years ago, what could you rationally expect the n vs E(b(n)) graph to look like?
Examples:
“Every year better than last”: graph is constant at 0
Some bad years: graph is between 0 and 1
Peak at 40: 0 till 40, then n-40 ramp.
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Each year gets both better and worse though 1996, 2000, and 2012/13 felt particularly good
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