Things that belong in Web 3.0: all the encrypted messengers, Slack, TikTok, gatsby, Roam, notion,... what else?
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Things I think are being "retired" by the Web 3.0 blade runners: PHP/LAMP stack, WordPress, likely old-UX facebook (pre outcome of pivot to encrypted/group-based they're trying now)
Kudos to twitter for being one of the few things that seems to be leaping across the 2-3 gap
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Mastodon is a ??? in my head. It's a blend of this 3.0 stuff, plus elements that look like they're from the distant blockchainy future 10 years out
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I agree that the blockchain web3 isn't here yet, but I don't think the other trends / products you've noted are big enough to warrant a major version number. We're still in the web 2.0 business cycle, and I don't think web3 will truly emerge until after web 2.0 bubble bursts
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I think there might be a "big deskilling" during a web 2.0 crash, when engineers working at JAMstack + encrypted messaging startups have to learn PHP or C# and deal with the business realities of a corp like an EMR vendor or even Slack (which built on LAMP)
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The employees of Tumblr that now work for Automattic (WordPress) are getting a taste of this now. I think a lot of people won't be able to deal with this de-skill and de-prestige and stop working on the web.
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otoh it's the oldest story in tech... java people were complaining about this 12y ago... they end up having a market for their skills, but just lose their prestige, and have to play second fiddle to new kids in town as the stack churns through the change
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I think what I'm proposing is that things might actually "go backwards" for the first time, that the web might become more conservative, more WordPress-y, etc, due to a combination of business pressure and the "failures" of the era. And in reality this will be progress
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Going thru your five examples:
1. encrypted messaging as base layer: real trend
2. JAMstack: only a good fit for VC backed startups / individuals
3. Graph databases: feel like this was hot in.. 2013, along with Mongo, but hasn't actually de-throned SQL at all
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4. "Tunnel" like UX patterns (threads etc) with an underground vibe: seems more like a design trend than a major web version number
5. Serious attempts to level up hypertext itself: example?
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5. is roam
reason graph dbs are big now I'm told is increases in single instance memory making them way more useful than they were in 2013, but above my paygrade to comment on whether that is correct
As for "merely a design trend" I think that's underselling the role of parallel design and tech trends. Remember web 2.0 was also "social media", exactly such a parallelism
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