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vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

Tweets

Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

This is my conversational account. For my work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

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    1. Ben Reinhardt‏ @Ben_Reinhardt 18 Dec 2019
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      87. You can reconcile both "precise constraint analysis" and "outcome unknown until trying" by looking at the constraint analysis as asking "what specifically would need to be true for this to work?" (This may of course be me desperately trying to have consistent beliefs)

      1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
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    2. Ben Reinhardt‏ @Ben_Reinhardt 18 Dec 2019
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      88. It's awesome that Elon is, at his core, a giant nerd. Obviously, it could be part of the persona engineered to be an icon but if so he's mastered the shibboleths really really well.

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
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    3. Ben Reinhardt‏ @Ben_Reinhardt 18 Dec 2019
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      89. In a way, the nerdiness generates trust. Because for all the rhetoric about existential risk and such if my mental model is correct his ulterior motive is "make more awesome sci fi sh*t." It is very possible this is me projecting.

      1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
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    4. Ben Reinhardt‏ @Ben_Reinhardt 18 Dec 2019
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      90. Elon resonates strongly with us SV types in part because it is so easy to project on him. I know many people who strongly pattern match against the Elon story up until SpaceX - did a cool software thing (slightly less $$), listlessly looking for next project. It’s uncanny.

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
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    5. Ben Reinhardt‏ @Ben_Reinhardt 18 Dec 2019
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      91. The difference between the Elon arc and the normal tech person is that the normal tech person just plows everything back into the software world. It's hard and uncomfortable and high risk to switch worlds. This is why I push back on the "win at software first" path

      1 reply 3 retweets 14 likes
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    6. Ben Reinhardt‏ @Ben_Reinhardt 18 Dec 2019
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      92. Elon rarely qualifies his optimism. This may be necessary to give himself the chance to win - a core part of leadership is appearing certain in the face of uncertainty. For more listen: https://www.econtalk.org/david-deppner-on-leadership-confidence-and-humility/ … But I worry this is an "ends justify the means" argument.

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
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    7. Ben Reinhardt‏ @Ben_Reinhardt 18 Dec 2019
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      93. On qualified optimism - Elon does actually say "this is going to be hard" and "we're not sure this will work" but somehow emotionally blows past it so that nobody remembers it. I'm interested in how he does that.

      1 reply 1 retweet 6 likes
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    8. Ben Reinhardt‏ @Ben_Reinhardt 18 Dec 2019
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      94. Elon's (approximate) stance that 'if you raise concerns that this might work you are a cynic and against clean energy, humanity, and the future' bothers me. At the same time, I get why he does it - see previous tweets about leadership and nuance. Is there a third option?

      3 replies 1 retweet 5 likes
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    9. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 18 Dec 2019
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      Replying to @Ben_Reinhardt

      You’re almost there!

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Ben Reinhardt‏ @Ben_Reinhardt 18 Dec 2019
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      Replying to @vgr

      Almost to 100 ... but I need to go above that. For better or worse, I stick by what I say, and I said 1 like = 1 opinion. I did not expect so many likes 😭

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 18 Dec 2019
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      Replying to @Ben_Reinhardt

      Well after 100, you can put the thread in maintenance mode and use it to comment on Elon related news via QTs

      10:35 PM - 18 Dec 2019
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