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87. You can reconcile both "precise constraint analysis" and "outcome unknown until trying" by looking at the constraint analysis as asking "what specifically would need to be true for this to work?" (This may of course be me desperately trying to have consistent beliefs)
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88. It's awesome that Elon is, at his core, a giant nerd. Obviously, it could be part of the persona engineered to be an icon but if so he's mastered the shibboleths really really well.
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89. In a way, the nerdiness generates trust. Because for all the rhetoric about existential risk and such if my mental model is correct his ulterior motive is "make more awesome sci fi sh*t." It is very possible this is me projecting.
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90. Elon resonates strongly with us SV types in part because it is so easy to project on him. I know many people who strongly pattern match against the Elon story up until SpaceX - did a cool software thing (slightly less $$), listlessly looking for next project. It’s uncanny.
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91. The difference between the Elon arc and the normal tech person is that the normal tech person just plows everything back into the software world. It's hard and uncomfortable and high risk to switch worlds. This is why I push back on the "win at software first" path
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93. On qualified optimism - Elon does actually say "this is going to be hard" and "we're not sure this will work" but somehow emotionally blows past it so that nobody remembers it. I'm interested in how he does that.
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94. Elon's (approximate) stance that 'if you raise concerns that this might work you are a cynic and against clean energy, humanity, and the future' bothers me. At the same time, I get why he does it - see previous tweets about leadership and nuance. Is there a third option?
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Replying to
Almost to 100 ... but I need to go above that. For better or worse, I stick by what I say, and I said 1 like = 1 opinion. I did not expect so many likes 😭
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