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vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

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Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

Conversational account. For work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian. IKEA builder.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

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    1. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 11 Nov 2019
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      If this seems like a doom-and-gloom thread, it isn't really. There's plenty of room for positive dynamics to be spun up in this 3 act saga. My narrow point is that these motivating "broken system" problems aren't solvable and won't be solved.

      1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
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    2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 11 Nov 2019
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      But any positive dynamics are going to take longer than 10 years to have an impact. Collapse is faster than wealth-creation processes. Which is why you get busts while they race each other. Amara's Law of returns (overestimate short term/underestimate long term)

      1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
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    3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 11 Nov 2019
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      In purely technological revolutions, the interim tends to be between 1-3 decades. But when you're also simultaneously reinventing political and economic institutions, it could take much, much longer. Hence the dark-age scenario, which is more serious than people want to believe.

      1 reply 1 retweet 8 likes
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    4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 11 Nov 2019
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      Think of it as this. Whatever "this" is, it's the result of software eating the world. The only question is what are we rhyming with here? 1910s (3rd industrial revolution, mostly tech) 1800s (1st industrial revolution, tech+economic) 1650s:(westphalia... tech+econ+political)

      1 reply 0 retweets 12 likes
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    5. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 11 Nov 2019
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      The entire stack of modernity is shearing. The pace-layering is hard to call. But the length of the "dark age" can be anything from 10 to 100 years depending on the details of the shearing dynamics. The bigger the stack refactoring you think is going on, the longer the dark age.

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
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    6. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 11 Nov 2019
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      Optimism versus pessimism is a very tedious kind of debate since history has always been multiharmonic cyclic overlaid on secular trends that can be interpreted as either progress or decline.

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    7. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 11 Nov 2019
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      The interesting question is predicting the lengths of the counter-cycles of the overall trend you think prevails. If you're fundamentally an optimist who thinks the arc of history is about progress overall, your task is to time the dark age lengths.

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    8. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 11 Nov 2019
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      If you're fundamentally a pessimist, your task is to time the irrational-exuberance bubble epochs and short them. Permabear and permabull are both derpy futurist positions. The meaningful bets are on the transience of dark and gilded ages against a secular arc-of-history posture.

      1 reply 2 retweets 11 likes
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    9. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 11 Nov 2019
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      If you, like me, plan to basically ignore Act 2 of 2020-24 while hardening your economic defenses for long haul, this is the skip-to-the-end question we actually have meaningful time to consider. The issues driving 2020 are all past the point of no-return.https://techcrunch.com/2019/11/09/can-america-ever-rebuild-its-neighborhoods-and-communities/ …

      3 replies 4 retweets 16 likes
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      Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 12 Nov 2019
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      Replying to @ultimape

      Wut

      8:31 PM - 12 Nov 2019
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