We've been focused on climate migration/refugees across national borders because the biggest early failures are/will be failures of weak states in the face of climate-related collapses. But in the next wave, even strong stages with functional institutions will start to unravel.
-
-
Optimism versus pessimism is a very tedious kind of debate since history has always been multiharmonic cyclic overlaid on secular trends that can be interpreted as either progress or decline.
Show this thread -
The interesting question is predicting the lengths of the counter-cycles of the overall trend you think prevails. If you're fundamentally an optimist who thinks the arc of history is about progress overall, your task is to time the dark age lengths.
Show this thread -
If you're fundamentally a pessimist, your task is to time the irrational-exuberance bubble epochs and short them. Permabear and permabull are both derpy futurist positions. The meaningful bets are on the transience of dark and gilded ages against a secular arc-of-history posture.
Show this thread -
If you, like me, plan to basically ignore Act 2 of 2020-24 while hardening your economic defenses for long haul, this is the skip-to-the-end question we actually have meaningful time to consider. The issues driving 2020 are all past the point of no-return.https://techcrunch.com/2019/11/09/can-america-ever-rebuild-its-neighborhoods-and-communities/ …
Show this thread
End of conversation
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.