In 3 years it's obvious that traumatized whiteness has not actually been solved by Trumpism. It's just handed out some palliative care in the form of twitter owns. In the next year, that will "settle" into a permaweird limbo equilibrium, kinda like Richard Spencer.
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If this seems like a doom-and-gloom thread, it isn't really. There's plenty of room for positive dynamics to be spun up in this 3 act saga. My narrow point is that these motivating "broken system" problems aren't solvable and won't be solved.
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But any positive dynamics are going to take longer than 10 years to have an impact. Collapse is faster than wealth-creation processes. Which is why you get busts while they race each other. Amara's Law of returns (overestimate short term/underestimate long term)
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In purely technological revolutions, the interim tends to be between 1-3 decades. But when you're also simultaneously reinventing political and economic institutions, it could take much, much longer. Hence the dark-age scenario, which is more serious than people want to believe.
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Think of it as this. Whatever "this" is, it's the result of software eating the world. The only question is what are we rhyming with here? 1910s (3rd industrial revolution, mostly tech) 1800s (1st industrial revolution, tech+economic) 1650s:(westphalia... tech+econ+political)
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The entire stack of modernity is shearing. The pace-layering is hard to call. But the length of the "dark age" can be anything from 10 to 100 years depending on the details of the shearing dynamics. The bigger the stack refactoring you think is going on, the longer the dark age.
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Optimism versus pessimism is a very tedious kind of debate since history has always been multiharmonic cyclic overlaid on secular trends that can be interpreted as either progress or decline.
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The interesting question is predicting the lengths of the counter-cycles of the overall trend you think prevails. If you're fundamentally an optimist who thinks the arc of history is about progress overall, your task is to time the dark age lengths.
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If you're fundamentally a pessimist, your task is to time the irrational-exuberance bubble epochs and short them. Permabear and permabull are both derpy futurist positions. The meaningful bets are on the transience of dark and gilded ages against a secular arc-of-history posture.
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If you, like me, plan to basically ignore Act 2 of 2020-24 while hardening your economic defenses for long haul, this is the skip-to-the-end question we actually have meaningful time to consider. The issues driving 2020 are all past the point of no-return.https://techcrunch.com/2019/11/09/can-america-ever-rebuild-its-neighborhoods-and-communities/ …
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I'm curious if you've seen my work on http://microsolidarity.cc ? I've got some experience with communes that don't suck, and now we're working out how to make those methods reproducible.
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I'm a prepper in the sense that I'm learning how to grow reliable trust and reciprocity networks that are pro commons.
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