The “enemy” in the inequality riots election is a Venn diagram of 3 parties: billionaires, urban NIMBYs in high value geographies, and stock-owning class that has seen nominal wealth balloon from QE-buyback loop. Warren and Yang are the paladins vying to represent the anger.
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I don’t think Bernie strikes the right note in representing the anger. His message is too big-tent dilutive of inequality. But even if both lose and a more wealth-friendly candidate (Trump or one of the other Democrats) wins, the anger energy will define 2020-24.
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In fact I think that’s the likely outcome. Traumatized whiteness had the strong tailwind of electoral college mechanics to make itself heard and let off steam at White House level. Traumatized urban precariat has a strong headwind in the same department. This is bad news.
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Why? Because if it can’t find electorally legitimate (module Russia) expression it feels is proportionate to energy, you’ll get more chaotic riots not less. Think Hong Kong.
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I’ve now heard multiple very wealthy people (n ~ 6) argue that inequality is a misframing and wealthsplain the “real problem” to me. They’re missing the point. If enough people believe “inequality” is the right framing, it will prevail and direct the anger energy.
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I think they all sincerely believe in some sort of “approximate meritocracy and Darwinian competition” folk theory, where even if they are compassionate rather than contemptuous towards precariat, they think it’s the only way the world can work. They’re TINA theorists.
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Effectively they’ve used the failure of 1910s vintage communism to convince themselves aggregate low-wealth political interests is not a contender at all in the Darwinian political arena, except in extremist Venezuelan form which of course can’t happen here.
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Just like in 2016, institutional elites had concluded that of course illiberalism had been permanently falsified in 1933 and ethnonationalosts couldn’t aggregate into political contenders at all, except in extremist Greece/Italy form which of course couldn’t happen here.
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Initially I thought healthcare would be the rallying symbol. But now I think the angries are young and healthy enough that they feel the pain of high rents far more than the cost of healthcare. Many are even choosing to live dangerously without health insurance.
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Hard to see how to avoid it while staying within an "insurance" model if you can't mix risk populations.
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Replying to @ctbeiser
I guess the exit option feels cheap enough. I'm surprised by the number of young precarious people who say they simply choose to quit health insurance when under financial stress. Also, W2 employment is a strong leakage factor that drains much of the energy out.
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