sigh this is going to be the inequality election
-
-
I don’t think Bernie strikes the right note in representing the anger. His message is too big-tent dilutive of inequality. But even if both lose and a more wealth-friendly candidate (Trump or one of the other Democrats) wins, the anger energy will define 2020-24.
Show this thread -
In fact I think that’s the likely outcome. Traumatized whiteness had the strong tailwind of electoral college mechanics to make itself heard and let off steam at White House level. Traumatized urban precariat has a strong headwind in the same department. This is bad news.
Show this thread -
Why? Because if it can’t find electorally legitimate (module Russia) expression it feels is proportionate to energy, you’ll get more chaotic riots not less. Think Hong Kong.
Show this thread -
I’ve now heard multiple very wealthy people (n ~ 6) argue that inequality is a misframing and wealthsplain the “real problem” to me. They’re missing the point. If enough people believe “inequality” is the right framing, it will prevail and direct the anger energy.
Show this thread -
I think they all sincerely believe in some sort of “approximate meritocracy and Darwinian competition” folk theory, where even if they are compassionate rather than contemptuous towards precariat, they think it’s the only way the world can work. They’re TINA theorists.
Show this thread -
Effectively they’ve used the failure of 1910s vintage communism to convince themselves aggregate low-wealth political interests is not a contender at all in the Darwinian political arena, except in extremist Venezuelan form which of course can’t happen here.
Show this thread -
Just like in 2016, institutional elites had concluded that of course illiberalism had been permanently falsified in 1933 and ethnonationalosts couldn’t aggregate into political contenders at all, except in extremist Greece/Italy form which of course couldn’t happen here.
Show this thread -
Initially I thought healthcare would be the rallying symbol. But now I think the angries are young and healthy enough that they feel the pain of high rents far more than the cost of healthcare. Many are even choosing to live dangerously without health insurance.
Show this thread -
In general, in all these democracy riots, the systematic political miscalculation is believing live players to be dead players. Weakening players are not dead players and dead players are not extinct players. There are downcycling weapons-of-the-weak available at every stage down
Show this thread -
Live player/dead player is a choice to act with agency *in whatever form it is available to you*. So weak live players band together in collective action tactics as they weaken. Disenfranchised players band together in civil disobedience actions as they weaken. Etc.
Show this thread -
No sufficiently large constituency ever just lays down and meekly dies just because more powerful players have declared them terminal losers marked for extinction. There's always a subset willing to fight to bitter end, for at least delivering a bloody nose to the "winners".
Show this thread -
It's like that trope in horror movies or thrillers where the beast/villain is down for the count, but with the last breath of life, grabs the hero by the ankle and drags him down too. gandalfbalrog.gif
Show this thread -
A couple more points. There's an arc to this 3 act story with 2 dimensions. Shifting focus and downward devolution in abstraction level of the discourse.
Show this thread -
Shifting focus: Act 1 = culture war Act 2 = class war Act 3 = technological war.
Show this thread -
Downward devolution: Act 1 = war of ideas/ideologies (vote with words, virtue signals) Act 2 = war of economic trends (vote with dollars, economic signals) Act 3 = war of material trends (vote with lifestyle choices/designs)
Show this thread -
Harambe inaugurated Act 1 with a nihilistic null signals, a skip-to-the-end doomerism around discourses that were already visibly futile Ok boomer is inaugurating Act 2 by explicitly disengaging from the idea-level discourse and says "see you in the ballot box/market/court"
Show this thread -
My Harambe article from 2016 where I first used the term "Great Weirding"https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/09/harambe-the-perfect-meme/498743/ …
Show this thread -
Tweet unavailable
-
Simpler version of the whole story: 2016: Vote with memes 2020: Vote with dollars 2024: Vote with feet This is assuming the core 3 tragic problems remain unsolved and nobody sees any net increase in agency/imagination.
Show this thread -
In 3 years it's obvious that traumatized whiteness has not actually been solved by Trumpism. It's just handed out some palliative care in the form of twitter owns. In the next year, that will "settle" into a permaweird limbo equilibrium, kinda like Richard Spencer.
Show this thread -
In the 4 years, best case for traumatized precarity is that Warren will try and fail to deliver medicare for all, trust busting, or student loan forgiveness or UBI or anything. And the precariat will start abandoning urban economies for remote work economies.
Show this thread -
That will trigger Act 3, the technological vote-with-feet/lifestyle choice era. There is big mood in favor of abandoning increasingly unlivable metros, but people so far don't feel the pain enough to act on *communal* out-migration fantasies. Only individual/family trickles-outs.
Show this thread -
By 2024, this mood will have organized itself in the form of entire subcultures having identified and targeted and begun moving towards "microcolonization" destinations (kinda like some libertarians have already targeted New Hampshire). Domestic urban pilgrim streams.
Show this thread -
I'm calling this a colonization pattern because that is what it will be. Since the target zones are not empty or political blank slates. There have been many examples of this sort of movement in history and the sustained conflict that results between "locals" and migrants.
Show this thread -
We've been focused on climate migration/refugees across national borders because the biggest early failures are/will be failures of weak states in the face of climate-related collapses. But in the next wave, even strong stages with functional institutions will start to unravel.
Show this thread -
So domestic migrations rewiring the political landscapes of large countries will dominate in a few years. I'll make a fun but low-confidence prediction. If we're still doing this meme thing, the top meme of 2023 will have some sort of physical mobility/migration theme.
Show this thread -
The chances of political action fixing electoral college system in the US are low to zero. The system simply isn't that adaptable. But one thing that CAN do it is massive migration to hinterland and real reversal of the urban migration that began in the 1880s.
Show this thread -
To be clear this is not a good thing. Technologically, climate action is best driven by densification and energy efficiency. We're just not going to go down that route. By 2024 we'll have concluded that climate action at the scale/speed we think is necessary is impossible.
Show this thread -
So we'll default to the pop-science/tech idea of what's the best Plan B, which will be most people choosing to create survivable lower-density/lower-scale communities that mitigate local impact of effectively abandoned global climate action efforts.
Show this thread -
This is going to be ridiculously ineffective. A bunch of people in miserable little communes larping their favorite post-apocalyptic scenarios. But it should be entertaining to watch if you happen to pick one of the minority of good ones to spectate from.
Show this thread - 9 more replies
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.