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vgr's profile
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
Venkatesh Rao
@vgr

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Venkatesh Rao

@vgr

Conversational account. For work follow @ribbonfarm, @breaking_smart, @artofgig. Tweets are 90% vacuous views, apathetically held. Mediocritopian. IKEA builder.

Los Angeles, CA
venkateshrao.com
Joined August 2007

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    1. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 3 Nov 2019
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      Long-termism is a kind of minimalism. The longer the planning horizon beyond a point, the fewer assumptions you can trust and the simpler things get. There’s a peak of planning complexity about 5 years out and weirdly that’s the horizon a lot of planning targets.

      1 reply 7 retweets 82 likes
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    2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 3 Nov 2019
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      Avoid 4-6 year horizons. You don’t get the tractability of short term <3y or the simplification of >6y. 1 year is easy, 50 years is easy. 5 years sucks.

      2 replies 2 retweets 29 likes
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    3. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 3 Nov 2019
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      Planning is not prediction. Prediction generally gets monotonically harder with time. But planning gets easier because agency wanes andctgeres fewer meaningful things you can do the farther out you look.

      1 reply 0 retweets 11 likes
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    4. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 3 Nov 2019
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      I’m not a serious long-termist the way long now people are. It mainly interests me as a filtering mechanism for “important”. If you can’t see X making a difference in 50y the only reason to pay attention to it now is pleasure or pain avoidance.

      1 reply 1 retweet 8 likes
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    5. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 3 Nov 2019
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      I do want to go see the long now clock eventually though. Maybe scratch some graffiti nearby. I hope they’ve created a rock wall for graffiti. Rock blockchain. Rockchain.

      1 reply 0 retweets 13 likes
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    6. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 3 Nov 2019
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      What feels like good long term thinking to me feels oddly similar to that pleasant exhausted relaxation you feel the day you start recovering from a cold. There’s a kind of simplifying clarity that sets in as the high-energy bullshit drops away.

      1 reply 1 retweet 11 likes
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      Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 3 Nov 2019
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      I have a cold right now. Looking forward to the recovery day. I usually get a creative breakthrough or two on long-term projects on cold-recovery days. As above so below.

      11:16 PM - 3 Nov 2019
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      • portalnyc eric antonow James Hill-Khurana Mike Abundo Mempenehene Maxim Leyzerovich JamesonLaw Pantone, Duke of Kimbriki
      0 replies 0 retweets 8 likes

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